New AARP Poll: Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Are a Toss-Up in Michigan

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points; Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers by 3 points in the U.S. Senate race

LANSING, MI—Today, AARP Michigan released a 2024 statewide election survey, finding that candidates should pay close attention to Michiganders ages 50 and older, who make up an outsized portion of the electorate. In the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 55% of all Michigan voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 60% of the state’s voters. Eighty-eight percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, 12 points higher than the 76% of voters ages 18-49 who say the same.

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) among voters overall, 45% - 43%, with 8% of voters supporting a third-party candidate. The candidates are tied at 48% on a head-to-head ballot. Among voters ages 50 and older, Trump holds a 2-point lead over Harris on both the full ballot and in a head-to-head matchup. Harris is ahead by 13 points among women overall and by 11 points among women ages 50 and older, while men overall favor Trump by 20 points and older men favor him by 17 points.

In the U.S. Senate race, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) holds a 3-point lead over Mike Rogers (R), 47% - 44%, among voters overall, with 8% undecided. Among voters 50 and older, Slotkin and Rogers are tied at 46%, also with 8% undecided.

“Michigan voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Paula Cunningham, State Director, AARP Michigan. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers, who are highly motivated to vote this November.”

Eighty-one percent of voters ages 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are very important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (72%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (69%), and the cost of prescription drugs and utilities (both at 66%). And the vast majority (82%) of older Michigan voters prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiating for lower prescription drug prices.

Other key takeaways from the poll among voters 50 and older include:

• 61% of older voters say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income.
  
• Immigration and border security (32%) is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by inflation and rising prices (27%), and the economy and jobs (24%).
  
  • Sixty-one percent cite personal economic issues – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important.
• Among older Black voters in Michigan, Social Security is the single most important issue, above inflation, immigration, jobs and other big electoral issues.
  
• Thirty percent of older voters identify as family caregivers, making up 16% of voters overall. Thirty-four percent of older Black voters and 33% of older swing voters identify as family caregivers.
  
• Eighty-seven percent of caregivers ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, and among this group Democrats have the advantage: Harris leads Trump by 9 points and Slotkin leads Rogers by 11 points.
  
• Sixteen percent of older voters are ticket-splitting swing voters − a large enough bloc to sway any of the statewide races.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between August 7-11, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (37%), as well as SMS-to-web (38%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

View the full survey results at aarp.org/MIpolling and find all of our state battleground polls at aarp.org/voterpolls24. Read AARP’s interview with the pollsters about this poll here.

 For more information on how, when, and where to vote in Michigan, visit aarp.org/MIvotes.


For media inquiries: Careena Eggleston, ceggleston@aarp.org or 517-246-1225.