New AARP Montana Poll: Tim Sheehy Leads Sen. Jon Tester in Senate Race

For Immediate Release: Sept. 5, 2024

Contact: Stacia Dahl | sdahl@aarp.org | 406-457-4704

New AARP Montana Poll: Tim Sheehy Leads Sen. Jon Tester in Senate Race

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Harris by 15 points among voters overall and by 23 points among voters over 50

Helena, Mont., Sep. 05, 2024 — Today, AARP Montana released a 2024 statewide election survey revealing that candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Montanans ages 50 and older, who make up an outsized portion of the electorate. In the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 56% of all Montana voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 65% of the state’s voters. Ninety-two percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, compared with 77% of voters ages 18-49 saying the same.

➡️ See Detailed Findings: Montana Voter Survey
➡️ See Detailed Findings: Annotated Questionnaire

In the U.S. Senate race, Tim Sheehy (R) leads Senator Jon Tester (D) by 49% - 41% on the full ballot, with 5% of voters supporting a third-party candidate and 4% undecided; Sheehy’s lead widens among older voters, 55% to 39%. In the head-to-head ballot, Sheehy leads Tester among voters overall, 51% - 45% and even more among older voters, 57% - 40%. 

“Voters over age 50 are the biggest and most enthusiastic voting bloc this election, and their votes will make a difference in the U.S. Senate race,” said Tim Summers, State Director, AARP Montana. “The candidate who wants to win in November should focus on the issues older voters care about most, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to supporting family caregivers.” 

In the presidential contest, former President Donald Trump (R) holds a strong lead over Vice President Harris (D) among voters overall, 56% - 41%, and among voters 50 and older, 60% - 37%. 

On the issues, 78% of voters ages 50 and older say that candidate positions on Social Security are very important to making their decision in November, followed by Medicare (71%), the cost of housing (62%), and policies that help seniors live independently at home (61%). And the vast majority (79%) of older Montanans prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiating for lower prescription drug prices. 

Other key takeaways from the poll among voters 50 and older include:

• Ninety-five percent of Montana voters 50+ support the state legislature providing lasting property tax relief that would make it easier for older Montanans to remain in their homes as they age.
• Three quarters of Montana voters 50+ favor renewing the Medicaid expansion program before it ends next June. This includes support from 64% of Republicans 50+.
• Seventy-four percent also support Montana funding a state tax credit to help with out of pocket expenses for unpaid family caregivers taking care of aging loved ones.
• Immigration and border security (40%) is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by inflation and rising prices (24%), and the economy and jobs (23%).
• A majority (56%) say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income.
• Twenty-five percent of older voters identify as family caregivers, with 29% of older women and 28% of rural residents over 50 saying the same. Older caregivers make up 14% of Montana’s electorate and support Sheehy over Tester by 17 points.
• Sixty-one percent of older voters are worried about their personal financial situation, which is reflected in the issues that these voters care about: 53% rank personal economic issues as the most important issues in the election.
• Twenty-five percent of voters over 50 are not straight ticket voters; Senator Tester leads narrowly among both these older swing and independent voters.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and David Binder Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Montana. The firms interviewed 1,064 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 464 likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between August 25-29, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Montana voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%. 

View the full survey results at aarp.org/MTpolling and find all of our state battleground polls at aarp.org/voterpolls24. Read AARP’s coverage of the poll here. 

For more information on how, when, and where to vote in Montana, visit aarp.org/MTvotes.

Also of interest:

• AARP Poll: GOP Challenger Leads in Pivotal Montana U.S. Senate Race: Spotlight is on contest that could decide which party controls the Senate
  
  📢)) Listen to the Voices of Montana Segment - Q &A with the Pollsters 9/6/2024