New AARP Pennsylvania Poll: Voters 50+ Could Tip the Scales in 2024

For Immediate Release: May 7, 2024

CONTACT: TJ Thiessen | tthiessen@aarp.org | 717-381-7420

New AARP Pennsylvania Poll: Voters 50+ Could Tip the Scales in 2024

Donald Trump leads over President Joe Biden among older voters; Senate race is neck-and-neck between Sen. Bob Casey and Dave McCormick

HARRISBURG, Penn. – Today, AARP Pennsylvania released a 2024 statewide election survey that shows candidates for President, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Pennsylvanians ages 50 and older. Eighty-percent of voters ages 50+ report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (73%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (69%), and the cost of prescription drugs (67%).

Pennsylvanians ages 50+ will be key in determining who wins in November. This voting bloc makes up an outsized portion of the electorate: in the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 55% of all Pennsylvania voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 62% of the state’s voters. Eighty-five percent of voters ages 50+ say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election.

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads over President Joe Biden (D) by 4 percentage points – 49% to 45%. Trump’s lead is even greater among voters 50 and older, at 52% - 42%. Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D) leads Dave McCormick (R), 48% to 44% in the U.S. Senate race among voters ages 18 and over, but among the 50+, McCormick has a slight edge over Sen. Casey, 48% - 47%.

“Pennsylvania voters over age 50 are a critical voting bloc that all candidates are competing for in this election,” said Bill Johnston Walsh, State Director, AARP Pennsylvania. “Pennsylvanians of all political stripes want leaders to protect Social Security and provide support for family caregivers. If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to Pennsylvanians ages 50-plus.”

Other key takeaways from the poll include:

• A significant majority (68%) of Pennsylvanians ages 50 and older think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
• Sixty-three percent of older voters say they are worried about their personal financial situation, with the cost of food and utilities ranking as top drivers of financial stress. 
• Eighty-nine percent of older voters are concerned about fraud through robo-calls, phishing emails, or other scams.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research to conduct a survey. The firms interviewed 1,398 likely Pennsylvania voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, with an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters age 50 and older, between April 24-30, 2024. The interviews were conducted via landline, cellphone, and SMS-to-web. The margin of sampling error for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

View the full survey results at aarp.org/papolling.

For more information on how, when and where to vote in Pennsylvania, visit aarp.org/PAVotes.

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About AARP
AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation's largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.