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New AARP Arizona Poll: Voters 50+ May Tip Scales in Midterm Election

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Secretary of State Katie Hobbs hold narrow lead in competitive race for Governor; Sen. Kelly leads by larger margin in U.S. Senate race.

AARP Arizona released key findings from a 2022 election survey that shows candidates should pay close attention to Arizonans age 50 and older, with issues such as immigration and border security, inflation, and Social Security and Medicare top of mind for these voters.

Arizona residents 50+ are a crucial voting bloc, consistently showing up to the polls and making a key difference in election outcomes in Arizona. In the state’s 2018 mid-term elections, the 50+ made up 64.2% of the electorate.

In the very close governor’s race, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is leading Kari Lake 49% - 48%. Among Arizona voters 50+, Lake is ahead 50% - 48%. Secretary of State Hobbs leads by 30% among Hispanic voters overall and 16% among Hispanic voters 50+.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Mark Kelly leads Blake Masters by 50% - 42%, with third party candidate Marc Victor getting 4% of the vote and another 4% undecided. In a head-to-head match-up, Kelly’s lead is similar at 52% - 45%. Among voters 50+, Kelly leads 50% - 47% in a  head-to-head matchup. Sen. Kelly also holds a sizeable 21% lead over Masters among Hispanic voters 50+.

 “Arizona voters 50 and older are a critical voting demographic that all candidates are competing for in this midterm election,” said Brendon Blake, Advocacy Director, AARP Arizona. “With the price of necessities like groceries, housing, and health care so high, Arizona residents want their leaders to provide solutions to inflation and the rising cost of living. The message is clear, if candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to Arizonans 50-plus.”

The survey also found:

  • A significant majority (72%) of voters overall think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 73% think the same about the direction of the state.
  • 62% of voters overall say they are worried about their personal financial situation.
  • The vast majority (91%) of voters 50+ say they are extremely motivated to vote in the November election.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research to conduct a survey. The firms interviewed 1,332 likely Arizona voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, with an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 282 Hispanic likely voters age 50 and older, between September 8-15, 2022. The interviews were conducted via landline (30%), cellphone (35%), and SMS-to-web (35%). The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 845 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.4%; for the 400 total sample of Hispanic voters 50+ is ±4.9%. Surveys were offered in English and Spanish.  

For more information on how, when and where to vote in Arizona, visit aarp.org/AZvotes.  

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