Ray’s Round Up: Election Review and Future Preview

It has been quite the month!  Some would say that only fools try to predict what will happen in public affairs because inevitably the outcomes will make the predictors look foolish.  There are many pundits looking back at the results of the November 8 elections with those thoughts in mind.

A Few Facts To Get Us Started…

Pennsylvania voters were of many different minds as they cast their ballots on Election Day.  In the most high-profile race, Pennsylvania defied the national assumption that the Keystone State was a reliable Democratic stronghold in Presidential elections, and favored Donald Trump.  Pennsylvanians also returned Republican Pat Toomey to the United States Senate for another six-year term.  In the three other statewide races, for Attorney General, Auditor General, and State Treasurer, voters reversed the Republican trend and elected three Democrats – Josh Shapiro as Attorney General, Eugene DePasquale as Auditor General, and Joe Torsella as State Treasurer.  They will join Governor Tom Wolf to give Democrats a complete hold on Harrisburg-based statewide political offices.

In the 18 United States House of Representatives races, the status quo held.  Republicans began the election cycle with a 13-5 advantage in the Pennsylvania delegation and everything remained the same after the votes were counted.  Because of retirements and resignations, three new members of the U.S. House were elected – Dwight Evans in the 2 ^nd District, Brian Fitzpatrick in the 8 ^th District, and Lloyd Smucker in the 16 ^th District – but they replaced members of their own political party

Elections for the General Assembly showed a tilt towards the Republican Party.  Republicans gained three seats in both the Pennsylvania State Senate and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.  The State Senate now has 34-16 Republican majority, the largest majority in many years and big enough to override a veto of legislation by the Governor if all members of the Republican Party voted together.  Republicans now also have a 122-81 edge in the House of Representatives.  Despite concerns expressed by voters in the run-up to the election, only five incumbents who were on the November ballot – three members of the State House and two members of the State Senate – were defeated.

So What Does This All Mean?

Remember the words of the first paragraph about predictors and fools?  The Federal Government is entering a time of great uncertainty.  President-elect Trump said many things on the campaign trail, some of which conflict with the policy positions of the Republicans who maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate.  An issue of great concern to many older Americans is the continued stability of the Medicare and Social Security programs. The President-elect stated emphatically that he would make no changes in Social Security and Medicare so as to not jeopardize the benefits of current retirees.  But both programs face financial challenges in the future,  and some in Congress have proposed significant changes, particularly in Medicare.  As the new Administration takes office and begins developing its first federal budget, important decisions must be made.

Many AARP members have expressed concerns about what these decisions might be.  The most important point to emphasize right now is that we truly do not know what direction the new Administration may take on this issue.  However, that means that those who strongly support Medicare should be prepared to defend the integrity of the program.  As AARP has been asked about Medicare and what the organization will do to protect Medicare benefits, we have emphasized two points:

1. Medicare is a sacred promise to all Americans. AARP will continue to fight to strengthen and improve Medicare by cracking down on drug companies’ high prices, improving patient care, and eliminating waste, fraud and abuse.
2. AARP will continue to fight any attempts to cut Medicare benefits.

Back in Pennsylvania, the election results indicate there may not be much change in approach at either the Administration or the General Assembly levels.  Both sides may feel empowered politically – Democrats swept the statewide elections and Republicans increased their margins in both houses of the General Assembly.  But both sides face some sobering realities when it comes to the fiscal situation in the Commonwealth.

The Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office released their 5-year economic outlook on November 15 and it contained some disheartening news for policy makers .  Projections indicate the current budget is likely to be $500 million short by the end of the fiscal year.  If no spending cuts or revenue enhancements take place, next year’s fiscal imbalance will be $1.7 billion.  The report also notes that the fiscal situation may get worse in the coming years, as more Pennsylvanians retire and the working age population stagnates.

The new General Assembly will take office in January and the Governor will present the 2017-2018 State Budget in early February.  One prediction I am willing to make is the debate and discussion about this budget will be long, drawn-out and contentious.

Odds and Ends….

 There may some discourse between the General Assembly and Governor before January though.  The Administration has announced it may be forced to lay off 400 to 500 workers from the Department of Labor and Industry who work in unemployment compensation call centers.  They claim this is because the State Senate failed to approve legislation transferring funds for the operation of the call centers before they adjourned for the year.  The Senate believes funding for the operation of the call centers is available within the Department of Labor and Industry budget, but without that funding, those that previously operated the unemployment phone centers may find themselves unemployed as well.

On November 21, the Pennsylvania Health Cost Containment Council celebrated their 30 ^th anniversary.  The PHC4 is a small state agency that receives very little publicity for their work over the past 30 years in calling attention to health care issues in Pennsylvania. Not only has PHC4 saved Pennsylvanians millions of dollars in unnecessary health care costs, but it has saved countless lives by emphasizing the need for quality in health care.  PHC4 issued one of the first reports about hospital-acquired infectious diseases and continues to issue hospital effectiveness reports, which can be found here.

Finally, we want to highlight that Pennsylvania is home to one of the architectural treasurers of the United States – the Pennsylvania Capitol.  The building, dedicated by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906, is not only the seat of State Government, but is a living relic.  A new website has information about the Capitol, and the site will soon have a virtual tour for those who can not visit Harrisburg just yet.

 

“Ray’s Round Up” features updates on current state and federal issues by Ray Landis, AARP PA’s Advocacy Manager.