Ray's Round Up: How Do PA Elections Impact State-of-Play?

Tuesday, November 3rd was election day and the business of state government slowed this week while the results are analyzed.  Let’s join the crowd.

Pennsylvanians voted in three Statewide Judicial elections this year with one of the elections being for three seats on the Supreme Court.  The Democratic candidates won all the elections; of the last 14 positions available in statewide elections, the Democratic candidates have won 12 (the two Republican victories were for Superior Court seats in 2011 and 2013).

While Democratic candidates swept the statewide judicial elections, Republicans were strengthening their majority in the State Senate.  Republican Guy Reschenthaler was elected to fill an unexpired term in the 37 ^th Senate District in Allegheny and Westmoreland Counties.  This increases the Republican majority in the State Senate to 31-19 – at least until January, when Republican Senator Dominic Pileggi will resign his seat to become a Delaware County judge.

The actual impact of these elections cannot truly be known in Pennsylvania, as the actions of the judiciary are based on the cases that come before them.  Candidates for judicial positions do not state their positions on issues as they run for election.  Hints about how they may rule on cases may come from their previous decisions in positions on lower courts, but they operate based on their interpretation of the law in any given case.

The perception of the elections, however, is another story entirely.  Both political parties have their own interpretation, ranging from “Pennsylvania is becoming a blue state” to “the winners won the elections because they spent more money and the candidates couldn’t talk about issues.”  Once you get beyond the spin, are there lessons to be learned that could carry over to the elections of 2016, when Pennsylvanians will vote for a President, a United States Senator, Representatives to Congress and State Senators and Representatives?

Here are some of my thoughts:

• The 2015 election results may not reflect how voters react in 2016. Issues will play a much larger role in the Presidential and legislative races, with financial security at the top of the list.  Turnout should be larger in a Presidential year and the attention paid to the candidates will also increase, meaning that a memorable occurrence, either positive or negative, on the campaign trail could have a major impact on the final result.

• How will Western Pennsylvania vote? Republican candidates have been receiving higher percentages of the vote in much of Western PA in recent years, particularly in the suburban counties surrounding Pittsburgh.  The 2015 election saw Democratic judicial candidates reverse this trend, turning what would have been a very close statewide election into a significant victory for the Democrats.  Was this just a one year change because of the nature of the election or are Democrats regaining strength in these areas?

• The US Senate race is likely to be very competitive. The perceived statewide Democratic trend should give the three declared Democratic candidates hope, but incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey begins the campaign with superior name recognition and a significant fundraising advantage.  If the Democratic primary campaign results are close, whichever candidate wins the primary is likely to begin the general election campaign at a disadvantage against Senator Toomey.  Nationwide, however, Senate elections have proven to be very volatile, and voters have shown no hesitation in not re-electing an incumbent.  All the factors could indicate a tightly-contested race.

 

For candidates running at the federal level in 2016, the future of Social Security should be a top-of-mind issue.  AARP will push this issue to the forefront by asking candidates about their views.  Right now AARP is focusing on the Presidential candidates as the early primaries and caucuses approach.  A new website www.2016takeastand.org has been established to relate what candidates are saying about the future of Social Security.  Visit to learn what the candidates will propose for Social Security should they be elected.

“Ray’s Round Up” features updates on current state and federal issues by Ray Landis, AARP PA’s Advocacy Manager.