New AARP Poll: Presidential Race a Toss-Up in North Carolina

RALEIGH, N.C.—Today, AARP North Carolina released a 2024 statewide election survey, revealing that candidates for president and state races should pay close attention to North Carolinians ages 50 and older. North Carolina voters 50 and older make up an outsized portion of the electorate: in the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 54% of all North Carolina voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 64% of the state’s voters. Ninety-one percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, with 78% of voters ages 18-49 saying the same.

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) among voters overall, 48% - 46%, with 3% of voters supporting a third-party candidate and 4% undecided. Trump maintains the lead on the head-to-head ballot, edging out Harris by 3 points, 50% - 47%. Among voters 50 and older, Trump holds a 9-point lead over Harris on both the full ballot and in a head-to-head matchup. Among white voters 50 and older, Trump is ahead by 36 points while Harris holds an 88-point lead among Black voters 50 and older.

In the Governor’s race, Attorney General Josh Stein (D) holds a 10-point lead over Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R), 52% - 42%, with 6% of voters undecided. Among voters 50 and older, Stein leads Robinson by 3 points, 48% - 45%, with 7% undecided. The open seat for North Carolina Attorney General is competitive, with Rep. Jeff Jackson (D) ahead of Rep. Dan Bishop (R) by 47% - 43%, with 10% of voters still undecided.

Eighty-four percent of voters ages 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are very important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (78%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (73%), and the cost of utilities (71%). And the vast majority (81%) of older North Carolinians prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiating lower prescription drug prices.

“North Carolina voters over age 50 could tip the scale for any candidate in November,” said Michael Olender, State Director, AARP North Carolina. “Candidates who want to win should pay attention to the issues that matter to older voters -- from protecting Social Security and Medicare to supporting family caregivers.”

Other key takeaways from the poll among North Carolina voters 50 and older include:

• More than 3 in 5 say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income.
• Immigration and border security (36%) are the most important issues when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by the economy and jobs (32%), and inflation and rising prices (29%).
• Sixty-eight percent cite personal economic issues – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important.
• Seventy-eight percent support creating a state retirement savings program for North Carolina workers who do not have access to one through their employer.
• Twenty-eight percent of older voters identify as family caregivers, with 38% of older Black voters and 32% of women over 50 saying the same. Family caregivers 50 and older make up 15% of North Carolina voters overall.
• Ninety-one percent of caregivers over 50 say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November and among this group, Trump leads Harris by 8 points.
• Ticket-splitting swing voters over 50 make up 28% of older voters overall, and they are more likely to be Independents and moderates.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in North Carolina. The firms interviewed 1,324 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 476 likely voters ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 252 Black likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between September 11-17, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (27%) and cellphone (33%), as well as SMS-to-web (41%). The sample was randomly drawn from the North Carolina voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

View the full survey results at aarp.org/NCpolling and find all of our state battleground polls at aarp.org/voterpolls24. Read AARP’s coverage of the poll here.

For more information on how, when, and where to vote in North Carolina, visit aarp.org/NCvotes.

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About AARP
AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation's largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.