AARP New York Releases Analysis of 2025 NYC Mayoral Primary

Older Voters 50+ Poised to Decide General Election After Mayor Adams’ Exit, Shaping the Path to City Hall

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EN ESPAÑOL | NEW YORK — An analysis released today by AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics of the 2025 New York City mayoral primary reveals that older voters will play the decisive role in the outcome of the general election.

For decades, New Yorkers age 50-plus have been the city’s most reliable voters, consistently comprising 60% or more of the general electorate, and with nearly eight in ten undecided voters over 50, they are positioned to determine who becomes the city’s next mayor.

While older New York City voters are far from a monolith, they consistently turn out at higher rates than any other age group. Their priorities, including affordability, safe and stable housing, public safety, transportation, quality health care, and building more livable communities for all ages, will be central issues in November. Candidates who want to win must address them.

The analysis, based on official Board of Elections data and AARP New York and Gotham poll conducted in August found that Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani’s support skewed younger, with a majority of his backers under 50. By contrast, 81% of Governor Cuomo’s support, 78% of Curtis Sliwa’s, and 78% of undecided voters were 50-plus.

“Older New Yorkers are the most reliable voters in our city, and history shows that the 50-plus vote will make up the majority of November’s electorate,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. “Older voters will play a decisive role in choosing the next mayor, and they are paying close attention. Candidates who want to win must speak to their priorities — from affordability and housing to public safety, transportation, and making our city more livable for people of all ages.”

• Older Voter Reliability: Voters 50-plus have historically made up 60%+ of general election turnout. With nearly 8 in 10 undecided voters also in this age group, older New Yorkers could once again be the decisive bloc in November.
• Generational Shifts in the Primary: For the first time, voters under 50 comprised 51% of Democratic primary turnout, with 146,000 more younger voters participating compared to 2021.
• New Registrants: Roughly 130,000 new voters registered before the primary — about 62% Democrats, 29% independents, and 7% Republicans.
  

“Our analysis makes clear that the unprecedented surge of younger voters - both new registrants and first-time participants - was central to Assembly Member Mamdani’s primary victory. But November will be a different electorate. As turnout rises, the older New Yorkers who have historically dominated these off-year contests, along with a growing bloc of independents, will be pivotal,” said Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling & Analytics.”

These scenarios are illustrative, not predictive. Results will depend on turnout and candidate performance across groups. Older New Yorkers are not a monolith, but their historically high participation means they are positioned to play a decisive role:

• Consolidation (one major candidate exits): If voters 50-plus reach their typical 54–60% share of turnout and consolidate behind a single candidate that could be decisive in the general election.
• Status Quo (3+ candidates stay in): Assembly Member Mamdani retains a polling lead under most modeled scenarios, even if the electorate skews older.
• Head-to-Head: With most undecideds over 50, older voters could tip the balance. If their turnout mirrors historic levels and breaks strongly toward one candidate, the contest could tighten considerably.

The full NYC 2025 Mayoral Primary Recap and General Election Analysis can be found here: https://aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/5b/64/786fadc5412480f8c6f4f1bd654c/gotham-polling-aarp-2025-nyc-mayoral-primary-analysis-final.pdf

About AARP

AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 120 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation's largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.

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